This Tercera División RFEF Group 4 match between Deportivo Alavés III and Aurrerá Vitoria is set for kickoff at the following times: US (EDT) 1:30 PM on April 1, 2026; Argentina (ART) and Chile (CLT) 2:30 PM; Germany/France/Spain (CEST) 7:30 PM; Mexico (CDT) 11:30 AM. Predicted by the Resultados Futbol Hoy platform, our analysis points to a narrow home win for Deportivo Alavés III. For the latest resultados del futbol hoy, check out real-time updates on our site.
Opening Hook
I’ve got my eyes on this Tercera División RFEF Group 4 clash between Deportivo Alavés III and Aurrerá Vitoria, and I predict a narrow home win for Deportivo Alavés III as the most likely outcome. The strongest reason? Alavés III’s recent 1-0 victory in the reverse fixture back in November, combined with their superior goal difference and home resilience at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón. For betting value, look at home win or draw double chance – it screams opportunity given Aurrerá’s back-to-back losses. Dive into more football predictions like this.
Expected Starting Lineup and Reasons
Based on the last 5 matches inference from Sofascore and squad data, here’s my predicted lineups. Alavés III should stick to their attacking 4-2-3-1 to exploit home advantage, while Aurrerá deploys a 4-3-3 for counter-threats.
| Team | Formation | Starting 11 | Main Reasons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés III | 4-2-3-1 | GK: Gaizka García; Def: Manex Irizar, Fedir Kolomiets, Jorge Gómez, Unai Bilbao; Mid: Iñaki Saenz, Sami El Mahboubi; AM: Eduardo Fontana, Álvaro Raba, Daniel Lyubomirov; FW: Aitor Aranguren | Reasons: Gaizka García retains spot after clean sheet trends in wins vs Eibar C and Durango (last 3 starts); Irizar returns at RB post-rest in draw vs Leioa for defensive stability; El Mahboubi anchors midfield after 2 goals in recent form, targeting Aurrerá’s leaky backline. |
| Aurrerá Vitoria | 4-3-3 | GK: Unai Velázquez; Def: Imanol Goikoetxea, Jon Vega, Ander Pérez, Iker Bilbao; Mid: Ibon Zubizarreta, Beñat Urrutia, Jon Ander; FW: Alain Barrasa, Iñigo Etxebarria, Gorka Larrinaga | Reasons: Goikoetxea anchors CB after starts in last 3 wins before recent slips; Zubizarreta slots in CM for control post-losses, as seen vs Leioa; Forward rotation with Etxebarria after sub impact in Durango win, aiming counters vs Alavés high line. |
Deportivo Alavés III vs Aurrerá Vitoria – Análisis / Analysis
Recent Form + Tactical Duel
Building on these lineups, recent form provides key insights into how the tactical duel may unfold. Deportivo Alavés III’s last 5: D 1-1 Leioa, W 3-1 Eibar C, L 0-2 Anorga, W 3-1 Durango, L 1-3 Aretxabaleta – mixed but potent attack averaging 1.6 goals/game, favoring possession and left-wing breakthroughs via Raba/Lyubomirov. Aurrerá Vitoria’s last 5: L 1-3 Zarautz, L 0-1 Leioa, W 1-0 Eibar C, W 3-0 Anorga, W 2-1 Durango – solid earlier but recent defense exposed on counters, relying on long balls to forwards. Tactically, Alavés’ higher possession (inferred from goals) should control midfield, forcing Aurrerá into transitions – expect Alavés to dominate but Aurrerá to threaten via set-pieces in a low-scoring scrap. Track live soccer scores during the match.
Injuries, Head-to-Head and Background Motivation
With lineups and form in mind, additional context from injuries, head-to-head, and motivation further sharpens the outlook. No major injuries reported for either side, clearing paths for full-strength lineups based on recent rotations. H2H favors Alavés III with a 1-0 win at Aurrerá earlier this season, their only meeting – tight, low-scoring history adds intrigue. Alavés (8th, 43 pts) chases top-half security at home, while Aurrerá (6th, 46 pts) fights to hold position amid form dip – home pressure tilts motivation to Alavés’ attacking squad. View the latest soccer league standings and check Sofascore for tournament details.
Betting Value Recommendations
These factors translate directly into strong betting opportunities.
- Home win – value as markets undervalue Alavés’ H2H edge and home scoring (45 goals league-wide).
- Under 2.5 goals – strong play given both recent tight games and H2H under.
- Asian handicap home 0 (home win or draw refund) – perfect cover for narrow home success probability I see at 55%+.
- Both teams to score No – Aurrerá blanked in last H2H and recent losses.
Risks and Upset Scenarios
However, no prediction is without risks, particularly potential upset paths. If second half stays 0-0, Aurrerá’s counter experience could steal a draw via late set-piece, as in their Leioa loss. Mild April weather in Vitoria-Gasteiz (around 15°C, partly cloudy) favors flow but rain risk could slick the pitch for slips. What worries me most: Aurrerá’s earlier win streak rebounds if Alavés midfield tires. Upset? Aurrerá grinds out a point on the road. Data drawn from Sofascore Aurrerá.
Overall Prediction
After thoroughly analyzing recent form, tactical duel, injuries, venue factors, motivation and all the latest data from my searches, I conclude that Deportivo Alavés III has the highest probability of success in this match. Based on both teams’ current form and the match context, I expect the game to most likely end in favor of the side above — probably a narrow victory, a hard-fought draw, or a controlled low-scoring result. A heavy defeat or dramatic upset cannot be ruled out but looks much less likely. The chance of the match going to extra time or penalties remains relatively low.
Radar chart visualizing key team strengths comparison.
Bar chart showing expected goals (xG) trends for both teams.
My confidence level: medium — main uncertainties: Aurrerá’s response to recent losses, weather slickness, referee decisions.
Important Disclaimer: This prediction is for reference and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute any betting advice or involve any form of gambling. Please gamble responsibly or not at all.
In summary, Deportivo Alavés III holds the edge for a narrow home victory in this Tercera División RFEF Group 4 encounter, driven by their head-to-head success and home form. Aurrerá Vitoria could pose threats on counters, but our analysis favors the hosts. What do you predict the final score will be? Share your thoughts in the comments below – we’ll consider them for future previews!