This Tercera División RFEF Group 4 mid-table clash kicks off at 11:30 CEST on April 2, 2026, in Spain (times in other zones: EDT 05:30, ART/CLT 06:30, CST 03:30). Get the latest Resultados Futbol Hoy predictions for resultados del futbol hoy, where our platform forecasts Pasaia KE edging a narrow home victory over Santurtzi. Thanks to their solid recent away wins translating into home resilience and a cleaner defensive record lately, Pasaia KE holds the edge. The strongest reason? Pasaia’s knack for grinding out results against similar opposition, with three clean sheets in their last five outings. For betting value, look at home win or under 2.5 goals—the market undervalues Pasaia’s home control in rainy conditions.
Expected Starting Lineup and Reasons
I predict the most likely starting lineups for both teams (including formation), based on recent matches and squad updates from Transfermarkt—no major injuries reported across either side.
| Team | Formation | Starting 11 | Main Reasons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasaia KE | 4-2-3-1 | GK: Juan Berlana; Def: Aritz Muñoz, Paul Arrizabalaga, Iker Lopez, Jon Garcia; Mid: Ander Zubillaga, Iñaki Zabaleta; AM: Naier Ezkerra, Oihan Chavez, Beñat Mancisidor; FW: Nicolas Diaz Hortelano | Reasons: Juan Berlana retains GK spot after clean sheets in wins vs Zarautz and Deusto (recent 3 matches starters); Aritz Muñoz at LB for defensive stability post recent transfers; tactical shift to 4-2-3-1 targets Santurtzi’s wings with young AMs like Oihan Chavez pushing counters. |
| Santurtzi | 4-3-3 | GK: Unai Llorente; Def: Hugo Cabanas, Jon Arambarri, Julen Martin, Adrián Echaniz; Mid: Beñat Hernández, Mikel Escobar, Aitor Guerras; FW: Mikel Zatón (LW), Unai Matey (ST), Joseba Castaño (RW) | Reasons: Unai Llorente solid in GK after Deusto win (recent starter); Hugo Cabanas anchors CB with experience vs Pasaia’s attacks; 4-3-3 for midfield control but vulnerable to home counters, per recent draws. |
Pasaia KE vs Santurtzi – Análisis / Analysis
Recent Form + Tactical Duel
Pasaia KE’s last five: loss 0-2 to Real Sociedad C, win 3-0 at Zarautz, draw 1-1 home to Lagun Onak, win 3-0 at Deusto, draw 1-1 to Portugalete—showing defensive grit with three shutouts but patchy home scoring, per Sofascore. Santurtzi mirrors mid-table struggles: win 2-0 at Deusto, draw 0-0 home to Portugalete, loss 1-3 at San Ignacio, draw 1-1 to Derio, loss 0-1 to Lagun Onak—decent away but leaky defense. Tactically, Pasaia thrives on counters via wing breakthroughs (Chavez key), controlling ~45% possession lately, while Santurtzi pushes possession (55% avg) but relies on long balls from midfield—expect Pasaia to absorb pressure at home and hit transitions, especially in rain slowing Santurtzi’s build-up. Check the full football predictions on Resultados Futbol Hoy for more insights.
Injuries, Head-to-Head and Background Motivation
No key injuries or suspensions for either side, clearing paths for standard lineups—Pasaia rotates youth like Arrizabalaga seamlessly. H2H is tight with one meeting this season and past draws dominant; Pasaia holds slight edge at home (4 wins in 15 total). Both 12th/13th on 31 points in the soccer league standings, motivation peaks for Pasaia to climb via home pressure at Jesus Mari Zamora—links to their lineup favoring defensive mids like Zabaleta against Santurtzi’s forwards.
Betting Value Recommendations
Home win looks like good value—the market seems to undervalue Pasaia’s recent clean sheets and home motivation vs a draw-prone Santurtzi. Draw no bet on Pasaia offers solid edge given their form trends. Under 2.5 goals has value with both sides’ low-scoring recent games (avg 2.2 goals). Asian handicap Pasaia 0 looks undervalued for a narrow controlled win.
Risks and Upset Scenarios
If the second half stays 0-0, Santurtzi’s draw specialist midfield could frustrate Pasaia, forcing a stalemate—seen in their last home draw vs Portugalete. Rain in Errenteria (6mm precip) favors Pasaia’s direct counters over Santurtzi’s possession game, but slippery pitch risks errors. I worry most about Santurtzi’s away resilience (win at Deusto) exploiting any Pasaia fatigue from midweek draw. Follow live soccer scores for real-time updates.
Overall Prediction
After thoroughly analyzing recent form, tactical duel, injuries, venue factors, motivation and all the latest data from my searches, I conclude that Pasaia KE has the highest probability of success in this match.
Based on both teams’ current form and the match context, I expect the game to most likely end in favor of the side above—probably a narrow victory, a hard-fought draw, or a controlled low-scoring result. A heavy defeat or dramatic upset cannot be ruled out but looks much less likely.
The chance of the match going to extra time or penalties remains relatively low.
This radar chart visualizes comparative team strengths across attack, defense, form, and possession.
This bar chart shows expected goals trends favoring Pasaia KE at home.
My confidence level: medium — main uncertainties: weather impact, referee decisions, key midfielder fitness.
Important Disclaimer: This prediction by Resultados Futbol Hoy is for reference and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute any betting advice or involve any form of gambling. Please gamble responsibly or not at all.
In summary, Resultados Futbol Hoy predicts a narrow home win for Pasaia KE in this Tercera División RFEF Group 4 matchup, driven by defensive solidity and tactical edges. The game could see low goals, with value in under 2.5. What is your predicted scoreline for Pasaia KE vs Santurtzi? Share in the comments below—I’ll consider your views for future analyses!